Gold prices could surge to almost $5,000 an ounce if Donald Trump’s continued attacks on the US Federal Reserve weaken the central bank’s independence, according to a forecast from Goldman Sachs.
The precious metal is already trading near record highs, with spot prices at $3,545.39 an ounce, up more than 35 per cent this year as investors and banks pile in to hedge against inflation.
Goldman warned that growing fears about political interference in the Fed’s decision-making could accelerate the shift, driving investors out of dollar-denominated assets and into safe havens such as gold.
“If 1 per cent of the privately-owned US Treasury market were to flow to gold, the gold price would rise to nearly $5,000 per troy ounce,” said Daan Struyven, co-head of global commodities research at Goldman Sachs, in comments first reported by the Financial Times.
Trump has repeatedly criticised the Federal Reserve, demanding deeper rate cuts and questioning its independence. Analysts say any move that erodes confidence in the central bank’s ability to manage inflation could spark a rush into hard assets.
With gold already one of the best-performing assets of 2025, Goldman’s forecast underscores how sensitive markets remain to US political risk, and how quickly sentiment could propel bullion towards unprecedented highs.
Read more:
Gold could soar to $5,000 if Trump undermines Fed independence, warns Goldman Sachs